El Nino on the way!

There's a strong El Nino event brewing chaps.

Droughts and flooding to be expected.

For the UK it's less clear, but don't be surprised if next winter is dry with heavy snow fall.

The El Nino is a warming of the Pacific Ocean as part of a complex cycle linking atmosphere and ocean. An El Nino comes along about every two to seven years as part of a natural cycle. Research suggests that extreme El Nino events will become more likely as global temperatures rise. Models suggest that climate change could double the number of extreme El Ninos after 2050.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32815460

Still not certain Wayne. May be it's a mild El Nino, a bad one is possible though.

Could be quite disruptive if it is a bad one. Food markets disrupted, droughts flooding.

Lets hope it's a mild one.

MarkH wrote: The models as of yesterday are predicting a weak to moderate El Nino through to July, with a possibility of strengthening through the late summer. This is what they called last year and it didn't materialise.  Looking at the latest data you can see an upwelling of cold water in the Nino4 region and the temperature anomaly is not all that deep at the moment so it's far from established yet. The models appear to be drawing on a consensus though, and it will become more apparent in the next few months.  Stay safe Alexander, lets hope for a mild one if we have to have one at all. Oh, and that article by the BBC, they do like to scare people don't they.

You know what Mark, I'm less than impressed with the BBC lately. They seem to be adopting the same mentality as the right wing, Rupert Murdoch propaganda machine. Exaggerate to sell as many papers as possible...

I got the distinct impression there was a Conservative bias during the recent UK masochistic election too. Or was it just me imagining it?


in other news...

Seems the Arctic has just seen a dramatic loss in sea ice.

The ice streams were broadly stable up until 2009, since when they have been losing on the order of 56 billion tonnes of ice a year to the ocean. Warm waters from the deep sea may be driving the changes, the UK-based team says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32837201

Yep, Theresa may is a nightmare. Cameron's latest is mind-blowingly scary too. He's announced a new counter extremism bill that will provide the authorities with new powers...

"For too long we have been a passively tolerant society, saying as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone. This government will conclusively turn the page on this failed approach."

Yes, he actually said that. Utterly, utterly terrifying!

Funny that, I thought if you obeyed the law they would indeed leave you alone... not any more under this government. 1984 here we come.

We are about the pay the price for the British publics masochist election choices.

I'm sure you have seen this already Mark, as I know you view the same source as me.

Did you know Nick Robinson, chief political editor for the BBC was president of the Oxford University Conservative Association?

I didn't know that. You'll be telling me that he too was a member of the Bullingdon boys next. The exclusive club that I think I'm right in saying, Cameron Osborne and Boris Johnson were members of at Oxford.

Apparently the club had several fascinating rituals. Members would trash a restaurant and then slap down a wad of cash to pay for the damage, or burn £20 notes in front of beggars and run away laughing.

Back to the environment... Here's another scary thought... fossil fuels company's now benefit from global subsides to the tune of 5.3 trillion dollars per year. $10 million dollars a minute!!! Meanwhile, more frequent El Nino's are predicted, as a result, in Alexander back yard in Ecuador!

So there's a business that's damaging the planet, probably irreversibly... so you give them 5.3 trillion dollars in subsidies. Awesomely logical!

MartinW wrote: alexcolka wrote: Hi, Needed to jump in this topic, since I'm ecuadorian, here in the coast of Ecuador (Guayaquil), the weather is still very very hot and there are still some rains, in May usually the temperature starts to drop due to the change of currents (Humboldt comes in) but no! still hot in here 30 - 35 deg celsius, our "fresh" and dry season in the coast is from June to late November (18 - 28 deg, it should be hotter but we are blessed with the cold Humboldt current) Anyway Ecuador is a zone where when El Nino strikes does a lot damage, the last time was Nov 1997 to May 1998 and it was a disaster, so many floodings, some coast towns lost one block, those houses were destroyed and those grounds are now part of the beach. So... yes, let's hope for a mild Nino or none at all. Fascinating to hear from someone who's directly impacted by El Nino. Thanks for posting. Coming from the UK, I can't imagine what it must be like to suffer lengthy periods of 30-35 degrees. Must be a nightmare, but I guess you are kind of used to it? Bet your PC gets nice and warm. Overclocking your CPU must be limited in your neck of the woods?

Well I never overclock my pc, indeed the room sometimes is very hot but I start the air conditioner ;-)

Problem is electric bill goes high in cost if you turn on the ac too much all day. So yes I'm kind of use to this hot weather BUT when you go to our beaches that are awesome in this country, you spent a wonderful time with a nice cold beer ;-)

Rich wrote: Martin, I just read that quote and thought "nah, that can't be right".  Absolutely unbelievable. That completely passed me by.  Deaths by terrorism in the UK since 2001 total less than 60 (more people have died from falling off ladders and over 35,000 have died on the roads in that same time period, for contrast), so I wouldn't exactly call the efforts over the last 14 years a "failed approach". Certainly not enough to warrant the erosion of civil liberties and their proposed removal or the Human Rights act and introduction of their snoopers charter.

It's the scariest thing to come out of Cameron's mouth yet I would say. I suspect it's more about control of the populace than combating terrorism to be honest. What with the "occupy" protest and more recently the anti austerity demonstrations seems to me they are desperate to exert control. No longer is it a case of demonstrating within the law so all okay, instead there will be all manner of interventions whether we behave ourselves or not.

Did you notice how little coverage there was in regard to the latest demonstrations? It got quite out of hand at one point, but no, pretty much nothing on the BBC.

What with the scary TTIP

http://www.waronwant.org/campaigns/trade-justice/more/inform/18078-what-is-ttip

And now this...



   

wain wrote: stay safe Alexander, cant beat a bit of air con but like you say electric bill rockets up, here in the uk we get middle of the road weather without any real extremes, I still hear people saying its too hot, or too cold and half inch of snow and the country grinds to a halt......... Wayne

Thank you for your concern... Guayaquil is safe, you may get flooding in the city with a severe storm but all is normal in a couple of hours. Here if we get a severe flooding, we carry on with our labours one way or another, only schools close, if we get a damaged road because of flooding in the coast or a mountain collapse in our highlands, people transfer from one end to the other end of the blocked road by foot or boat, we just carry on.

There are limits though Wain.

The IMF have just announced that the fossil fuel industry receives 500 billion dollars in subsidies per year! [5.3 trillion if you count environmental damage] Effectively we are paying them to damage the environment. Actually we are encouraging them too.

The IMF also tell us that if we stopped providing the industry with huge subsides, global CO2 emissions would drop by 20%.

In addition, Shell have said that they regard the evidence as definitive that mankind is warming the planet. They also believe governments around the world will continue to take very little action...

They regard it as business as usual for them.



http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/17/shell-climate-change-rhetoric-the-real-story

My point, is that for our grandchildren and their children... adaption may not be an option.

Wow, impressive stuff Mark.

I heard that according to the NOAA, there's a 90% chance it could last well into 2016.

Could be the strongest since the 1997-1998 event.

That prediction was last month, not sure about latest predictions.