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"Snow thing of the past"

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Magic Man View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Magic Man Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 12:20pm
There was a program on a couple of months back, conspiracy road trip I think, on about the 7/7 London bombings.
 
One guy on there simply could not believe that the London bus could have been blown apart the way it was by anything other that military explosives.
 
An explosives expert (seen him on many things, bit of an ecentric genius) put together a 'replica' of the bomb thought to have been used, made with commonly availble ingredients and packaged in a small box easily transportable in a rucksack.
 
They placed it in the seat the bomber was supposedly seated in, put the bus in a evacuated quary and watched from a safe distance as it was detonated.
 
The look on the conspiracy 'expert's face was classic. The bus was blown apart, eerily replicating the pictures of the actual London bus from 7/7 in its devastation.
 
"So, do you believe that it must have been military explosives now"...
"....ummm, no"
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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 2:39pm
I missed that one, sounds interesting.
 
It's surprising to some how explosives work.
 
Hitler's bunker for example. The bunker he was supposed to be in had no windows. The explosion would have killed everyone in the room. Fortuitously for Hitler, the meeting was rescheduled and took place in a bunker with windows. The resulting explosion blew out the windows, and the pressure from the explosion was reduced markedly, thus, Hitler survived.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 6:22pm
OK, you want to debate the man...

Quote If you wish to visit websites set up by discredited organisations, and run by TV weather men, and believe what you read, go ahead.

You mean like the IPCC with its UNVERIFIED reports from biased organizations like the WWF? So much for peer review! Mann with his discredited "hockey stick", the UEA with its tampered data, Met Office data that is backed by data and techniques no-one understands, the major loss of original source data by Met Office, UEA, NOAA, etc. etc. etc..

Your comments are ironic.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html

Quote PUBLISHED: 22:42, 13 October 2012 | UPDATED: 14:59, 16 October 2012

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.

The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued quietly on the internet, without any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been reported.

This stands in sharp contrast to the release of the previous figures six months ago, which went only to the end of 2010 – a very warm year.

Ending the data then means it is possible to show a slight warming trend since 1997, but 2011 and the first eight months of 2012 were much cooler, and thus this trend is erased.

Some climate scientists, such as Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, last week dismissed the significance of the plateau, saying that 15 or 16 years is too short a period from which to draw conclusions.

Others disagreed. Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’.


Who is right? The guy who was found to be tampering with data and thinks computer models are infallible, or the woman who is "anti MMGW" who clearly (and correctly) states that computer models are flawed?

Quote Even Prof Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun. However, he said he was still convinced that the current decade would end up significantly warmer than the previous two.


Despite this, you seem to think he is "credible"!!!!!!!!



As Prof. Jones proves, when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like nail. Because he doesn't understand (BY HIS OWN ADMISSION) about the effect of the Sun and the oceans on climate, THEN HIS ONLY CONCLUSION CAN BE MANS ACTIVITIES, BECAUSE IT IS ALL HE CAN USE. He therefore has INCOMPLETE models, and is drawing wholly incorrect conclusions as a direct consequence.

It is 4th Grade science that with incomplete data, you get an incomplete picture, and any attempt to draw conclusions in the face of KNOWING you lack additional information is outright FRAUDULENT given the burden levied upon any conclusions derived from it.

In short - NO-ONE HAS A FREAKING CLUE! Looking at the basic standards they hold in their scientific research (data manipulation without recording how, loss of source data, etc..) they likely only studied climate science because it was all they were good for. Playing with computer models all day long and not actually ever doing any serious scientific research because their basic standards are TOO LOW.

If these people were doctors, they'd have been struck off/imprisoned for GROSS NEGLIGENCE.

Best regards,
Vulcan.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hifly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 6:32pm
From snow to Hitler in a blizzard of rhetoric.
 
It has been said that the Allies didn't want Hitler dead as he countermanding his Generals advice and making military blunders that benefited the Allies.
 
Discuss...
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VulcanB2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 6:32pm
The fact you keep derailing the thread demonstrates you can't begin to argue the points. If you could, I'm sure you would.

Vulcan.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 6:48pm
Quote The regular data collected on global temperature is called Hadcrut 4, as it is jointly issued by the Met Office’s Hadley Centre and Prof Jones’s Climatic Research Unit.

Since 1880, when worldwide industrialisation began to gather pace and reliable statistics were first collected on a global scale, the world has warmed by 0.75 degrees Celsius.

Some scientists have claimed that this rate of warming is set to increase hugely without drastic cuts to carbon-dioxide emissions, predicting a catastrophic increase of up to a further five degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

The new figures were released as the Government made clear that it would ‘bend’ its own carbon-dioxide rules and build new power stations to try to combat the threat of blackouts.

CO2/climate change is only dangerous to the extent they want you to pay more in taxes, but it seems even they are not stupid enough to let their "facts" get in the way of keeping the country running.

The power stations of which they speak are GAS FIRED, not nuclear.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20608948

Quote Chancellor George Osborne has approved the building of over 30 new gas-fired power stations to replace the UK's ageing coal, nuclear and gas stations.

The new capacity could produce up to 26 gigawatts (GW) of electricity by 2030, a net increase of 5GW.

The plans will dismay environmentalists who want more emphasis placed on lower-carbon, renewable energy sources.

The best part? They will run on SHALE GAS, apparently the most CO2-creating fuel during production.

"Do as I say, not as I do". aka HYPOCRISY. If they are prepared to risk Armageddon ( ) for the sake of energy production, then it suggests they might just be lying about the future impacts.

Again, we can't escape the fact we run out of oil soon, and need alternatives if we are not to return the 1850s in a few decades.

Best regards,
Vulcan.
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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 7:18pm
Oh my, Vulcan's at it again. revisiting all we have argued about before.

A search would provide all the counter arguments necessary, but when I'm on my PC, rather than an iPad, I will go to all the trouble again.

PS, please stop claiming Phil Jones was discredited, we all know he wasn't, in fact SEVERAL investigations, in several countries all exonerated him of any wrongdoing.

And please cease with the data tampering garbage. You have been told countless times how tree ring data is inaccurate in regard to high latitudes, and how this MUST be corrected for.


And oh yes, the Daily Fail, what can I say. 15 year or so pauses in warming are expected. Have we forgotten what climate is again? Confusing it with weather again? Have we forgotten what "long term" means again.


I'll be back...
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VulcanB2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 7:22pm
Here is a scientific run-through of some of the trash the IPCC talk.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmichaels/2011/07/15/why-hasnt-the-earth-warmed-in-nearly-15-years/

Before you write this guy off, he's qualifications include:

Quote I have a Ph.D. in ecological climatology from the University of Wisconsin at Madison.

Even in your book that makes him qualified to speak.

Quote The opposite is occurring. Why this test was not performed eludes me. Perhaps that is because it provides yet another piece of evidence supporting the hypothesis that we have simply overstated the sensitivity of surface temperature to changes in carbon dioxide.

No doubt you'll still try and suggest I only read biased, unqualified individuals.

Best regards,
Vulcan.
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VulcanB2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 7:35pm
Why I waste my time with this is beyond me but anyway...

Read these two articles:

http://profeng.com/climate-and-energy/no-evidence-of-global-warming

http://profeng.com/climate-and-energy/climate-change-is-happening

The most striking difference is in the tone.

The "anti-MMGW" is in fact quite calm and questioning, and open to possibility.

The "pro-MMGW" article is positively alarmist, and certain in its ideas.

The "pro-MMGW" regurgitates the same crap about how we must stop MAN MADE emissions of CO2 or face certain death, when in fact historical records fly in the face of such claims (in the past it has been both warmer and had much higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere, yet look at the state of things today). Best of all man was not anywhere in sight in the past, either.

Just something for you to think about when you sit there saying how "climate deniers" are non-thinking baboons.

Only one thing is certain in science: NOTHING IS CERTAIN. We can only make best-guesses.

Best regards,
Vulcan.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MarkH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 8:15pm




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 8:36pm
Nice one Mark

Tell you what, im going to have real fun tomorrow I can see some of the most stupid things Vulcan has ever said there
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 8:55pm
 
Big%20smile Here we go, in regard to Vulcan's Daily Fail article took me a few seconds, typical Daily Fail...
 
 
Quote
 
The Daily Mail piece seems to have "cherry picked" a high point of warming in 1997, and a relative low point in 2012 to get a "level" temperature trend.
 

Here's is the Daily Mail "proof" graph below. As an example of cherry picking, the black lines are my additions selecting other data points along the graph that can be chosen had somebody wanted to misleadingly suggest the strong warming between 2000 and 2012 is the best trend, or the relative cooling between 1997 and 2007.

130%20DM%20trends2.PNG
Source: Daily Mail (My lines in black)

Both of my starting and ending points (black lines) would be misleading and draw inaccurate conclusions for the reader about global temperature trends in the next few years.

It's very dangerous, misleading, and scientifically dishonest to pick any one 16 year period and make inferences about where long term climate trends are headed.

3) The Daily Mail piece misses the point and the effects of current climate.

Even if you accept the (scientifically rejected) notion that a leveling of global temperature in the past 16 years will continue for the next several decades, the fact that we've observed the hottest 10 years in the global temperature record is troubling.

126%2010%20hottest%20years.PNG
Source: NOAA via John Abraham - University of St. Thomas

 
Quote

To suggest that a leveling of temperatures at current levels somehow diminishes threats posed by a warmer climate that holds more water vapor is absurd, incomplete, and journalistically irresponsible.

The last month globally cooler than the 20th century average was February 1985! Ask yourself this question: In a climate system where you would expect a roughly equal number of warmer and cooler than average months, how can the system be considered "normal" when we haven't recorded even one month cooler than average in 27 years?

It's sad and even dangerous that we live in an era where you have to vet news outlets and determine if they report science from a predisposed political bias. The Daily Mail piece is not peer reviewed science. It's one guy trying to create smoke where there's no fire.

When 97% of all accredited climate scientists agree on the basic facts of climate change and the human component, keep one eye open when journalists that work for tabloid newspapers do stories that claim to make "scientific" conclusions.

When a consensus of actual climate scientists say that global climate has stopped warming, I'll be the first to publish it in this space.

There you go.

Here's a deeper point by point look at the Daily Mail piece from Skeptical Science.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2013 at 9:17pm
Originally posted by VulcanB2 VulcanB2 wrote:

Here is a scientific run-through of some of the trash the IPCC talk.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmichaels/2011/07/15/why-hasnt-the-earth-warmed-in-nearly-15-years/

Before you write this guy off, he's qualifications include:

Quote I have a Ph.D. in ecological climatology from the University of Wisconsin at Madison.

Even in your book that makes him qualified to speak.



Best regards,
Vulcan.
 
Ha ha, you played right into my hands there. Big%20smile
 
A bit about Patrick Michaels. He's one of the most famous of all climate change deniers. It's not as if he believed and then suddenly changed his mind, he's always denied climate change.
 
He's done Knaff all in terms of climate change research for years...
 
Quote Office of Science and Technology Policy director, John Holdren,[10] told the U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee in June 2003, "Michaels is another of the handful of U.S. climate-change contrarians … He has published little if anything of distinction in the professional literature, being noted rather for his shrill op-ed pieces and indiscriminate denunciations of virtually every finding of mainstream climate science."[
 
And what the rest of the scinetific community tghink of him...
 
Quote Michaels' statements on the subject of computer models are a catalog of misrepresentation and misinterpretation … Many of the supposedly factual statements made in Michaels' testimony are either inaccurate or are seriously misleading."[14]
 
And once again of course, another example of confirmation bias, you gravitate once again toward a known climate change denier. Wink One of the most famous this time.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 2013 at 4:49am
Quote Ha ha, you played right into my hands there.

I don't care. Given that he is indeed one of the most famous deniers, it didn't cross your mind I might have chosen him on purpose? See... yet another example of you failing to think about what I actually write, instead taking it at face-value and completely missing the point. Maybe I'm being too subtle?

What I do care about however is that you still have not read the paper that analyzed the temperature records used by the IPCC (that would be REAL science, BTW. You know, research, analysis, questioning investigations, asking "is this wrong", etc.. - something the pro camp never do).

We can dance all day - but the point is you are avoiding the topic.

The one in denial here is you. You took the MMGW scam hook line and sinker, and can't accept that you've been conned (as has most of the world). OIL is what it is about, and getting beyond 2050 without a visit back to the dark ages when we no longer have electricity.

The Government bought their own trash to the point they are closing perfectly serviceable coal fired power stations. Thanks to Fukushima the nuclear industry was rocked and nearly led to the collapse of the next gen of nuclear power (unfortunately not quite, though Germany banned it at least).

China expands so much that one years expansion exceeds the entire annual CO2 output of the UK, so the maths of CO2 targets is a joke to start with! Somehow though you seem to think the numbers stack up (which they don't).

You read journals that are biased towards the pro-MMGW, then accuse me of being biased. The sad thing is you can't see it.

Your mind is so closed, you won't even read articles that question the current state of things that are counter to your position. I don't need to research the pro side that much as it is shoved in my face daily through the press. The other side of the argument however is not, not least, because it does not tow the party line.

I don't think I need to remind you that it was only the late 70s they were fearing an ice-age. It's all very well to say "they got it wrong", "they know better now", but in 20 years we will say the same of this, too.

Just remember how they sacked Professor David Nutt because he said drugs were less dangerous than alcohol and tobacco. It didn't fit with the party line, so they got rid of him, yet his science and research were solid, and empirical evidence supports his argument. The exact same thing is happening with MMGW. It's "not cool" to question the MMGW Gods.

Galileo said the Earth was not the center of the Universe, so they threw him in jail as a heretic.

Right now they say man's emissions of CO2 are wholly to blame for any warming, and future disaster, which is absurd, but anyone who says "prove it", or dares to question it, is simply laughed at.

Well.... the joke is on you.

Vulcan.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MarkH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 2013 at 6:48am
Well, well. Vulcan finally falls back to type. I wrote this back in April but this seems more apt than ever now, especially the last bit.

You seem to ignore logic and scientific methodology in specific fields of research because it fails to support your own beliefs. You work backwards. You have a personal belief on a given topic, and then, if the evidence fails to support your point of view, you collect together little facts, usually taken out of context, to reinforce any picture you wish to build. Rather than digging deeply and putting each fact into it's proper perspective in order for a more consistent and reliable picture to emerge. Any evidence that disagrees with you is ignored, even going as far as falling back to the last bastion of the denialist, "It's all a conspiracy!"

Sorry, just an observation.

Now if I read this right, you say the powers that be are blaming global warming on human CO2 emissions so we use less oil, but they forgot it was a lie and are now going to accidentally shut down coal fired power stations by mistake. You used poor examples in this 'debate' on purpose to wake us all up to the fact that we are being brainwashed by a media that is working to a secret agenda put in place by the 'MMGW Gods', and you don't research their lies too much as a way to shield yourself from their misinformation techniques. Then you compare your trail blazing comprehension to that of Galileo?



As you say Vulcan, I certainly do believe the 'jokes on us'.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Magic Man Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 2013 at 12:37pm
Originally posted by VulcanB2 VulcanB2 wrote:

Maybe I'm being too subtle?
Big%20smile, subliminally so...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 2013 at 2:09pm
Well said Mark. Smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 2013 at 2:22pm
Quote I don't care. Given that he is indeed one of the most famous deniers, it didn't cross your mind I might have chosen him on purpose? See... yet another example of you failing to think about what I actually write, instead taking it at face-value and completely missing the point. Maybe I'm being too subtle?
 
Big%20smile My daughter has just made me a rather nice hot chocolate. When I read that above I splattered it all over my keyboard. You must be kidding!!! Chosen him on purpose indeed, no one on the forum is dumb enough to believe that. You got it wrong... again!
 
Quote You read journals that are biased towards the pro-MMGW, then accuse me of being biased. The sad thing is you can't see it.

Your mind is so closed, you won't even read articles that question the current state of things that are counter to your position. I don't need to research the pro side that much as it is shoved in my face daily through the press. The other side of the argument however is not, not least, because it does not tow the party line.
 
Utterly wrong, as usual. I have been reading what both the denialists and the experts have been saying regarding this, since way back before this became your new conspiracy theory. Since you were a little nipper. I listen to both sides and reject the opinion that doesn't make any sense, the opinion that lacks logic.
 
Notice the bit in your quote I highlighted in red? There you go, that says it all. You have admitted that you don't listen to the pro side, that your knowledge of the pro side [the scientific argument] is based primarily on "what the press say". No wonder you get it so wrong, if you only study what journalists say, and don't bother to study the science.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 2013 at 2:46pm
Quote Galileo said the Earth was not the centre of the Universe, so they threw him in jail as a heretic.
 
Oh... My... God!
 
I don't believe you have latched on to that old cliché
 
1. Galileo was "primarily" up against the church, religious dogma. The church put him under house arrest, not what could be described as the scientific community of the day. 
 
2. That was 400 years ago, science has moved on. The scientific method is more advanced. It would be ridiculous to assume otherwise.
 
Don't forget, Galileo played a major role in the "scientific revolution" It was the turning point, the dawn of the scientific method in terms of astronomical observation, that we take for granted today. Quite understandable that the other philosophers and scientists of the time were likely to "get it wrong".
 
They didn't call Galileo "the father of modern astronomical observation" for nothing.
 
3. Yes, it is possible for one man to be right and a huge consensus to be wrong, especially in Galileo's day, but today such an occurence is very rare. Especially, in regard to climate change, where there is such a big consensus...
 
13,950 pier reviewed papers. 24 disagree with MMGW. Wink
 
Quote Right now they say man's emissions of CO2 are wholly to blame for any warming,and future disaster, which is absurd, but anyone who says "prove it", or dares to question it, is simply laughed at.
 
No, people like you are laughed at because you ignore the responses of others and don't offer a counter argument. You then keep returning and trolling the forum with the same bogus claims. It's like a ground hog day for a troll.
 
 What we do know, is that our emissions are in step with temperature rise since the industrial revolution. And don't you dare say the hockey stick graph is discredited, it isn't. It was criticised by sceptics yes, but not discredited. In fact, as you have been told countless times, there is now an entire hockey team of graphs, based on different temperature data. But they all suggest the same warming. In short, the hockey stick graph has been repeated, and replicated by many other studies.
 
But, as usual you will ignore this and come back in a couple of months and regurgitate.
 
Now, unless you are prepared to debate properly, and offer proper counter arguments to our responses, please go and do something that would be more productive.  
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2013 at 7:11pm
Quote What we do know, is that our emissions are in step with temperature rise since the industrial revolution.

"Correlation does not indicate causation". A common mistake. It does not explain the lack of warming the last 16 years, and to say the last 16 years is "too short" makes a mockery of the temperature records that only go back 100 years or so (16 years of 100 represents 16% of the data set - no mere rounding error).

Do you remember I created a graph of the temperature records available from the Met Office? I plotted the data sets and various running averages. It was clear there was a slowdown in the warming trend towards the end of the 90s, then my decadal running average actually went negative in the 2000's up to 2007 IIRC. It was plotted against CO2 records. The second order CO2 rise was increasing (meaning the rate of change was increasing) at the same time as the running average temperature started to plateau then decrease slightly.

How do you explain that? I seem to recall you wrote it off as "too short" or "weather".

Well here we are some 3 or 4 years later, and the picture hasn't changed yet - still on a slight down slope. Explain please. I'm waiting.

Best regards,
Vulcan.
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