F-4 Phantom Retirement

The US flies them as drones - they convert about 12 a year from the boneyard to QF-4s, but the converted ones retain the capabilty to be flown by a human pilot from the cockpit.

That AC has given good, long service, but the C-130, B-52 and Tu-95 beat it by a decade and all are still in service.  The DC-3 soldiers on in some places (but not in military service) and it was old when those others first flew.

So the Phantom still has a good few years left in it.

Quite possibly it does.  Bear in mind all the other AC listed except Harrier are not fighters and some (U2, Harrier) have special capabilities that give them some ongoing value because they are unique.  The F-4 really doesn't possess any specialized characteristics or capabilities that give it ongoing value, other than just being bought and paid for and in current service.

The decision to retire any military type is a complex set of variables that include the anticipated future operating and maintenance costs of the existing type vs. the acquisition, operating and maintenance cost of the new type - all of which is little removed from crystal ball work.  Also in the mix is the availability, current and future, of spare parts and contract support services, remaining airframe life (total hours, pressurization cycles, etc.) and their ongoing suitability for the role they're filling. 

Especially significant for fighters is the radar, other sensors (if any), avionics and weapons systems.  If they are old and outdated, upgrading those to current standards is generally somewhere along the continuum between costly and difficult and downright impossible.

Any 4th or 5th generation fighter is going to hand the F-4 it's butt in air combat these days, all other things being equal.  It's got the RCS of an ocean liner and leaves a smoke trail that can be seen from a long distance.  It's big and heavy with no special maneuverability tricks.  Raw speed is probably it's forte, but unless there's a tanker nearby, that's a card that must be played carefully.

Most countries, however, don't have the fiscal latitude to have the best so for all, some compromises are necessary. I think you will see F-4s in continued use for a few more years, but more and more in limited, specialized roles like the QF-4, SEAD, etc, as opposed to front line air superiority fighters.  They just aren't in the front rank for that any more and haven't been since F-14, F-15 and F-16 came into service. 

I'm pretty sure the major players will shed them soon.  The contract for the QF-4 conversions is on its last cycle.  I suspect Germany and Japan will retire their F-4s fairly soon.  Places like Turkey may hang on to them for a while longer unless someone makes them an offer they can't refuse for F-35As, newer block F-16s, etc.

Well MANPAD is a point and shoot device, so a quick phone call and they shoot it down.

Assuming a MANPADS engagement range of about 4 miles places the shooter in the middle of an 8 mi. diameter circle.  Assuming the target AC flies directly over him maximizes the time the target is in his engagement circle.  If the F-4 is travelling 600 mph he's in the 8 mile diameter circle for about 45 seconds.  That would have to be a pretty quick phone call, and if the missile is fired more than a few seconds after the AC passes over it's going to be in a tail-chase that it will probably lose.  The Phantom only has to get to the 4 mile ring before the missile and the missile will run out of gas before catching him.

I don't quite think that's how this went down.

There's speculation the Syrians were trying to prevent the photo-recon equipped F-4 from photographing the nearby seaport, where it's suspected that arms shipments are arriving from those supporting them, i.e. Iran, China, Russia.