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VulcanB2 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 26 Nov 2010 at 12:10pm
You know I had to...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11843895

Quote The earliest widespread snowfall for 17 years

"Ahh!! But it is only weather - the climate is warming!". That's what you're thinking, right?

Care to explain then why it is we are currently buried under snow? 2 inches in one night?

Whilst people moan and complain that it is getting warmer, they seem to ignore when it hits record lows. It is as valid as the highs, but it doesn't fit with trying to get everyone to reduce their oil consumption.

Quote Sub-zero temperatures were recorded across the UK overnight, far lower than those normally experienced in November.

* runs around in wild panic * Global cooling! Global cooling!

Please, stop insulting my intelligence.

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Vulcan.
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Magic Man View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Magic Man Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2010 at 12:27pm
What was the previous earliest 17 years ago?
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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2010 at 1:22pm
Vulcan, have you not seen the post below entitled "Snow?
 
As soon as I posted it I anticipated what your response would be. 
 
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VulcanB2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2010 at 1:26pm
Hi,

I hadn't read your post when I posted this.

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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2010 at 1:46pm
Then I've answered your queries there, go take a look. Smile
 
P.S. Remember that PM conversation we had?
 
So tell me, how did your research go? You know, the research i suggested you do, how huge oil companies have been sabotaging climates science for decades.
 
Did you bother to look? You spend a lot of time looking at conspiracy web sites, so why not research the real conspiracy???
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VulcanB2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 4:44pm
Big Oil may be trying to sabotage climate science, but when the very centers that are supposed to know what they are on about have been caught tampering with data, it goes beyond Big Oil.

Just pointing at (modified) graphs of temperature and graphs of CO2 are insufficient. Where are the research papers proving beyond all doubt the role of CO2 in terms of warming? There is much research into the science of Black Body Radiation. IT would be quite easy I would have thought to analyze CO2 in the context of this radiation and demonstrate beyond all doubt about the role of CO2. So far I see no such science. Instead we get people with bogus graphs pointing and saying "look there".

Remember the planetary examples I wrote here regarding CO2 concentrations of Mars, Earth and Venus, and their various comparisons and statistics?

There is also the small matter of the fact that all planets in the solar system are warming - not just Earth.

You may also be interested in this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesosphere

Quote Temperature
Within the mesosphere, temperature decreases with increasing altitude. This is due to decreasing solar heating and increasing cooling by CO2 radiative emission.

...maybe this is why they aren't waving papers on CO2 and warming around?? It's the natural place to be looking - the physics of CO2 and its effect on temperature. Not using flawed computer models to say "this will happen" with certainty - that alone should ring alarm bells, but it doesn't. Climate science is the only science certain of anything. It's impossible, and that fact alone means it is bogus.

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/environment/wrjp365g.html

http://lasersparkpluginc.com/uploads/CO2_Absorption_Data.pdf

In the last link note very carefully the point that CO2 only absorbs 8% of the radiation emitted in the first place.

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Vulcan.
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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 5:10pm
Big Oil may be trying to sabotage climate science, but when the very centers that are supposed to know what they are on about have been caught tampering with data, it goes beyond Big Oil.
 
They were exonerated. As you know. Wink
 
One thread only please on this topic. Lets stick to this one.

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VulcanB2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 5:19pm
Quote They were exonerated. As you know.

Like hell they were! That wasn't an investigation - that was a cover up!

http://www.cce-review.org/Biogs.php

Sir Muir Russell KCB FRSE - disgraced Scottish MP involved in corruption in office. DIRECTOR OF A COMPANY PRODUCING OFF-SHORE WIND TURBINES.

Professor Geoffrey Boulton OBE, FRS, FRSE - He is a member of the Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology, UK’s top-level science and technology advisory body. GOVERNMENT ADVISOR.

Professor Boulton’s research is in the field of glaciology, glacial geology, Quaternary science and energy. AGAIN - NOT A CLIMATOLOGIST.

Professor Jim Norton FIET FBCS FIoD FRSA - Vice President BCS - Chartered Institute for IT - THIS GUY IS IN I.T.! WHAT DOES HE KNOW ABOUT CLIMATE SCIENCE?!

The icing on the cake is this one:

David Eyton M.A. M.IoM3 C.Eng. Group Head of Research & Technology - BP - I'M SURE HE IS UNBIASED! BP ARE MOVING INTO RENEWABLE READY FOR WHEN OIL RUNS OUT!

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Vulcan.
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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 5:22pm
 proving beyond all doubt the role of CO2 in terms of warming?

Impossible! But we can say beyond all "reasonable doubt". Denialists like you are never reasonable though.

Instead we get people with bogus graphs pointing and saying "look there".

What bogus graphs. if you mean the original hockey stick graph, then entire web sites were set up just in an attempt to discredit it, the instant the graph was made public. However... while the denialists were doing that, numerous other teams were doing their own research. We now have a plethora of graphs by other researchers, an entire hockey team of graphs. Non identical, but all resembling the original, all agreeing with the basic premise. It's called a consensus.

Remember the planetary examples I wrote here regarding CO2 concentrations of Mars, Earth and Venus, and their various comparisons and statistics?
There is also the small matter of the fact that all planets in the solar system are warming - not just Earth.

 
No idea what you are talking about. they are independent planetary bodies, with different atmospheres.
 
Global warming is essential for life on this planet, without it we couldn't exist. But the amount of green house gas responsible is small compared to the rest of the atmosphere. the fact that there is a green house effect powerful enough to keep us alive, testifies to how potent the effect is... we are adding to the effect with our emissions.
 

 It's impossible, and that fact alone means it is bogus.

If anyone else is reading this they would be laughing at you. If global warming were impossible you wouldn't be alive.

 



 


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VulcanB2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 5:26pm
Quote they are independent planetary bodies, with different atmospheres.

YOU blame ME for selective memory! What about all the reports poiting to "the likeness and similarity of Venus, and a sign of what lies in store for Earth should CO2 be left unchecked. Venus is suffering from RUNAWAY GLOBAL WARMING".

I demonstrated in my post how VASTLY different to Earth Venus is, both in terms of exposure to solar radiation due to being much closer to the Sun (inverse square power law), and that the PRESSURE of Venus atmosphere is 96 times that of Earth, over an area some 30% smaller. The laws of thermodynamics prove that increasing the pressure alone raises the temperature substantially.

You can prove for yourself. Get a full gas bottle and open the valve wide open - the bottle will get ice on the outside from the temperature drop. Conversely, you try and fill the bottle rapidly to maximum capacity and it will get warm.

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Vulcan.
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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 5:27pm
Like hell they were! That wasn't an investigation - that was a cover up!
 
Prove it! like you ask scientists to be 100% certain. Common sense should tell you the email's that were stolen were not indicative of any kind of conspiracy.
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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 5:29pm
YOU blame ME for selective memory!
 
Yes i do. We talked about your weird attempt to be a planetary expert before. All your queries were answered then. Do a search. But I see you've ignore that again.
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VulcanB2 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 5:30pm
Quote Common sense should tell you the email's that were stolen were not indicative of any kind of conspiracy.
Stolen e-mails doesn't change the fact they demonstrate tampering and falsification of data.

You ignored my quotes to do with who was on the panel of "experts" in the "independent" review. Two were Government ministers, one works for BP, and NONE of them know anything about climate science! Hardly independent, hardly an investigation. Oh that, and they took hardly two weeks to report back.

You're seriously suggesting TWO WEEKS is long enough to investigate?! They could have hardly read a thing in that time, less investigate whether data was tampered with or not!

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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 5:31pm
If you'd like to make a point, then make one at a time.
 
I will respond, then you can offer a counter argument.
 
And I have noticed how you have change context, and not able to offer a counter argument to the other points made, are now switching the context back to the stolen emails. We discussed that before... stick to the topic of conversation. 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 5:32pm
That's the biggest cop-out if ever I saw one.

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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 5:34pm
No it's not, ask a question one at a time, any one you like. Then offer a counter argument.
you haven't been able to counter anything I've said, so now you are "deflecting the argument" as you put it to me earlier today.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 7:02pm
Big Oil may be trying to sabotage climate science,
 
Glad you admit it finally.  Thumbs%20Up
 
Remember the planetary examples I wrote here regarding CO2 concentrations of Mars, Earth and Venus, and their various comparisons and statistics?
There is also the small matter of the fact that all planets in the solar system are warming

Make your point. So what? Planets may be warming, there are many reasons for such a thing.

In the last link note very carefully the point that CO2 only absorbs 8% of the radiation emitted in the first place.

And what was the source of your PDF? The problem is, posting phoney science from dubious sources doesn't help anyone.

YOU blame ME for selective memory! What about all the reports poiting to "the likeness and similarity of Venus, and a sign of what lies in store for Earth should CO2 be left unchecked.

 

It’s speculated that the atmosphere of Venus up to around 4 billion years may have been “more like”, not identical but more like Earth in terms of having liquid water on the surface. It may well have been much hotter than Earth. 

The runaway greenhouse effect on Venus is believed to be caused by the evaporation of the surface water and subsequent rise of the levels of other green house gasses.

 

Unless you think you know better than planetary scientists, who have nothing to do with research into climate change by the way.

 

 Can’t believe you think you know better than the planetary scientists now.

Stolen e-mails doesn't change the fact they demonstrate tampering and falsification of data.

 

Not true.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=462

 

You ignored my quotes to do with who was on the panel of "experts"

 

So what? Most sensible individuals didn’t regard the denialist nonsense as valid anyway. Especially when you consider the timing. The emails were stolen so as to coincide with the climate talks, in an attempt to derail them.  Their assessment is open for scrutiny along with the material they based it on.

 

Can you show us how the panel constructed this cover up?

 

http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress.com/2010/03/30/climategate-inquiry-no-proof-of-fraud-better-disclosure-called-for/

 

It troubles me, that you don’t for a second consider the timing and it’s significance.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 7:02pm
Originally posted by MartinW MartinW wrote:

 proving beyond all doubt the role of CO2 in terms of warming?

Impossible! But we can say beyond all "reasonable doubt". Denialists like you are never reasonable though.


It isn't even reasonable doubt.

Quote
Instead we get people with bogus graphs pointing and saying "look there".


What bogus graphs. if you mean the original hockey stick graph, then entire web sites were set up just in an attempt to discredit it, the instant the graph was made public. However... while the denialists were doing that, numerous other teams were doing their own research. We now have a plethora of graphs by other researchers, an entire hockey team of graphs. Non identical, but all resembling the original, all agreeing with the basic premise. It's called a consensus.


Really? I seem to recall they were pulled apart too, for omissions in data they didn't like, and finding the data as presented in the graphs didn't match the source data (where available).

Quote

Remember the planetary examples I wrote here regarding CO2 concentrations of Mars, Earth and Venus, and their various comparisons and statistics? There is also the small matter of the fact that all planets in the solar system are warming - not just Earth.


 

No idea what you are talking about. they are independent planetary bodies, with different atmospheres.

Already answered - see further up.

Quote
Global warming is essential for life on this planet, without it we couldn't exist. But the amount of green house gas responsible is small compared to the rest of the atmosphere. the fact that there is a green house effect powerful enough to keep us alive, testifies to how potent the effect is... we are adding to the effect with our emissions.

You forget a few critical aspects. One, that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is tiny, that the amount we are adding to it is even smaller, and that the overall effect of CO2 on temperature is logarithmic (meaning that double the quantity of CO2 makes maybe a 1% change, double that quantity, effectively quadrupling the original amount, may result in only a 0.5% change, with a net total of 1.5% increase, despite quadrupling the quantity).

Quote
 It's impossible, and that fact alone means it is bogus.

If anyone else is reading this they would be laughing at you. If global warming were impossible you wouldn't be alive.


All the CO2 in the atmosphere only makes the planet a whole 30 degrees warmer. You also ignore the fact that the effect is logarithmic. More will make sod all difference to what we have. Even more than that has even less effect.

Research black body radiation and CO2, re-radiation, spectrum analysis etc.. and then come back and refute what I've posted.

This the REAL science of the effects of CO2 upon temperature. The reason you will not see any pro-MMGW scientist presenting this data is because it would blow their case apart.

"Thousands of scientists" at the IPCC have not produced this anywhere, yet it holds the key to the definitive answer on CO2 and how it relates to temperature. No other form of science can produce the answer like this research could.

The results are also not subject to interpretation, and scientists wouldn't need to go around the world guessing what something may mean. They can sit in a lab and produce CONSISTENT, VERIFIABLE results.

If someone did that and proved the warming effect of CO2, I'll listen, but as yet, no-one has. The reason no-one has yet is because they all know it would blow their argument wide-open.

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Vulcan.
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MartinW View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MartinW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 7:30pm

It isn't even reasonable doubt.

 

According to you and your denailist friends with ulterior motives, no. But according the consensus of opinion amongst qualified scientists, it is.

 

Really? I seem to recall they were pulled apart too, for omissions in data they didn't like, and finding the data as presented in the graphs didn't match the source data (where available).

No Vulcan, there's a plethora of similar graphs, many based on different data. They all more or less agree.

Quote More than a dozen subsequent scientific papers, using various statistical techniques and combinations of proxy records, produced reconstructions broadly similar to the original MBH hockey-stick graph, with variations in how flat the pre-20th century "shaft" appears. Almost all of them supported the IPCC conclusion that the warmest decade in 1000 years was probably that at the end of the 20th century.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy

 

You forget a few critical aspects. One, that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is tiny, that the amount we are adding to it is even smaller

 

We’ve discussed this several times before. The amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is small, you are correct. But forget MMGW for a second. That small quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere has a profound affect. It enables life to exist on this planet. We know it already generates a green house effect that is potent enough to provide a climate life can exist in.

So a little has a significant effect. Now take that small quantity of CO2 and add our contribution…

Concentrations of CO2 have increased by more than 35% since industrialisation began, and they are now at their highest for at least 800,000 years

Quote Greenhouse gases are produced naturally and commercially. Both types influence climate change.

All the greenhouse gases combined (the main ones being water vapour, CO2, methane and nitrous oxide) are only a tiny part of the atmosphere, making up less than 0.5%. Yet it is scientifically proven that these gases trap heat, keeping the planet 30 °C warmer than it would be otherwise and able to sustain life. Any changes in the levels of these gases, such as those recently brought about by human activity, will have a significant effect on global temperatures.

Keeping the climate stable is important for the well-being of the Earth. But there is now very strong evidence that man-made greenhouse gases are causing climate change

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VulcanB2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2010 at 8:16pm
Quote Any changes in the levels of these gases, such as those recently brought about by human activity, will have a significant effect on global temperatures.

This is where the argument falls apart.

250 ppm kept the earth warm (pre-industrial period). We are now at 350 ppm - the earth hardly warmed up. If we add yet more, the warming effect is even smaller!

Logarithmic scale:

An increase in the x value results in an ever diminishing increase in the y value.

y = log_e(x) [0 <= x <= inf.)


log_e(0.5) = ~ -0.693
log_e(2) = ~0.693
log_e(1000) = ~6.907
log_e(1000000) = ~13.81.

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